EXAMPLE 2.2.2 SOLUTION

Let p be the statement: "I win the Lotto." Let q be the statement: "I reform my life."

Then the premise arrangement has this symbolic form:

P arrow q.

q.

We need to recognize that this is the premise arrangement for a form of invalid reasoning (Fallacy of the Converse). This means that it is not possible to arrive at a non-trivial valid conclusion (see note above on Trivial Valid Conclusions); in other words, we would like to conclude "Therefore, p ('I won the Lotto')," but that conclusion would give us an invalid argument, as would either of the other given choices.

The correct choice is D.