General Note:

In any situation in which two or more individuals are chosen from a large population of unspecified size, we will assume that the selections are independent events.

As a practical matter, this is a reasonable assumption, even though it is not strictly correct. For example, suppose that among a certain group of 1,000,000 people, there are exactly 165,000 who are left-handed. Suppose further that we randomly select two people from the group. The probability that the first selectee is left-handed is 165,000/1,000,000. However, the probability that the second person is left-handed depends on whether or not the first person was left-handed. If the first person was left-handed,, the probability of the second person being left-handed will be 164,999/999,999; on the other hand,, if the first person wasn't left-handed, the probability that the second person will be left-handed is 165,000/999,999. Since the probability of the second event is affected by the occurrence of the first event, these events are actually dependent.

Notice however, that 165,000/1,000,000 = .165000000

164,999/999,999 = .1649991649

165,000/999,999 = .165000165

The fact that these three numbers are all nearly equal to one another explains why, as a practical matter, it is reasonable to treat the two events as independent. The amount of error introduced by this technically incorrect assumption will not be significant.



We will have more to say about this concept after we have discussed conditional probability.